Risk-adjusted asset valuations, pipeline scenario modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation — built for the diligence and operating decisions that actually allocate capital.
Free for researchers and academics. Investors and tech-transfer offices: book a conversation.
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Benchmark Combinations
11
Therapeutic Areas
8
Drug Modalities
3
Biomarker Strategies
What is PhaseFolio
PhaseFolio replaces 40-hour Excel rebuilds with a probability-of-success-aware engine that cites every assumption. Input your pipeline parameters; get a defensible rNPV in seconds.
Compute rNPV using evidence-based PoS benchmarks across 11 indications, 8 modalities, and 3 biomarker strategies. Sourced from BIO/QLS 2021 peer-reviewed data.
Fork assumptions, compare base vs. upside, adjust deal structures. Save unlimited scenarios and share password-protected reports with investors.
10,000-iteration stochastic simulation with correlated PoS and duration uncertainty. See the probability distribution of your asset value.
How it works
Select your indication, modality, and current development stage. PhaseFolio auto-populates evidence-based benchmarks.
Configure costs, durations, PoS overrides, revenue ramp, WACC, and deal terms. Every parameter is adjustable.
Get deterministic rNPV instantly. Toggle Monte Carlo for a 10,000-iteration probability distribution.
Export investor-grade PDFs, fork scenarios for side-by-side comparison, share password-protected reports.
Built for biotech
3D PoS Benchmark Matrix
11 indications, 8 modalities, biomarker-stratified
Sensitivity Playground
Interactive tornado chart — drag sliders, see rNPV change live
Epidemiology Builder
Estimate peak revenue from patient population data
Geographic Segmentation
Model multi-market launches with region-specific multipliers
Deal Structure Modeling
Licensing, co-development, profit splits, milestone-based deals
Investor-Grade PDF Export
One-click reports with methodology, references, and data tables
Password-Protected Sharing
Share results with investors — no account required to view
Excel Export
Full data workbook with waterfall, Monte Carlo, sensitivity tabs
Every benchmark is traceable to a published study. Every assumption is a footnote.
Baseline rates from BIO/QLS 2021 (N=12,728 transitions), Sun et al. 2025 (Nature Communications), and 7 peer-reviewed multiplier studies.
RA cohort (16 drugs, AUC 0.625) and NSCLC cohort (59 drugs, AUC 0.709). The model is validated against historical approvals and failures, not just calibrated to literature.
See the backtest →Signed exports, public verify endpoint, and full methodology pages. Every assumption traces back to a citation.
Read the methodology →Full methodology, worked examples, and source citations available in the methodology paper.
Who Is This For
Free Research access for the people learning the workflow. Diligence-grade workspace for the people committing capital.
Research Tier
Free forever via Research Tier. Full back-test, methodology, public benchmarks, and a single project to learn the workflow.
Diligence Workspace
Signed dossier exports, evidence register, asset-anchored landscape, founder-led support, and multi-asset workflow for real diligence.
Book a ConversationResearch Tier
PhaseFolio’s Research Tier is free for verified academic institutions and 501(c)(3) nonprofits using the platform for teaching, research, or grant-funded analysis. Currently available to the Johns Hopkins community.
JHU sign-ups: @jhu.edu · @jh.edu · @jhmi.edu · @jhsph.edu
Other research institutions interested? Get in touch
PhaseFolio is in active beta. Every commit lands on production within minutes, every export carries a signed hash, every methodology page versions itself. Tell us what to build next.
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