Methodology · Retired

Backtest Methodology (Retired)

PhaseFolio retired its published outcome backtests in Methodology M4. The rheumatoid arthritis, NSCLC and antimicrobial cohorts were run on models before 3.0.0 and are no longer maintained, so their pages are gone. The last published version of this methodology stays available as a frozen snapshot.

Status Retired in Methodology M4 (2026-09-28)
Section updated 2026-09-27

01Status

PhaseFolio retired its published outcome backtests in Methodology M4. The back-test library at /research/backtests and its rheumatoid arthritis, NSCLC and antimicrobial cohort pages have been removed, and the in-app backtest link no longer appears. The cohorts were run on models before 3.0.0 and are no longer maintained. No outcome backtest is currently published.

02What stays

  • The last published version of this page. It remains available as an immutable snapshot, listed on this page, so any citation of M2 or an earlier methodology@… version still resolves. Its cohort results are kept as a record of what those model versions computed, not as validation of model 3.0.0.
  • The model. No model value depended on this page. The probability of success calibration section documents where each model probability comes from.

01Frozen versions

02Key facts

Key facts
StatusRetired in Methodology M4 (2026-09-28)
Last live methodologyM2

Methodology M10 · Section updated 2026-09-27 · Version history → · Model card →

Backtest Methodology (Retired) | PhaseFolio