{"data":{"version":"M5","source":"Derived from BIO/QLS/Informa 2021 (Thomas et al.) disease-area, modality and biomarker rows; preclinical rates are PhaseFolio assumptions","n":12728,"data_version":"2026-09-27","stages":["preclinical","phase_1","phase_2","phase_3","nda_bla"],"indications":["oncology_solid_tumor","oncology_hematologic","rare_disease","neurology","immunology","infectious_disease","cardiovascular","metabolic","respiratory","dermatology","ophthalmology"],"modalities":["small_molecule","monoclonal_antibody","bispecific","adc","cell_therapy","gene_therapy","peptide","other"],"biomarker_strategies":["none","enrichment","companion_dx"],"matrix_shape":{"indications":11,"modalities":8,"biomarker_strategies":3,"total_cells":264},"baseline":[{"indication":"oncology_solid_tumor","preclinical":0.04,"phase_1":0.495,"phase_2":0.2211,"phase_3":0.413,"nda_bla":0.9177,"overall_loa":0.0017},{"indication":"oncology_hematologic","preclinical":0.07,"phase_1":0.507,"phase_2":0.2635,"phase_3":0.5842,"nda_bla":0.8847,"overall_loa":0.0048},{"indication":"rare_disease","preclinical":0.08,"phase_1":0.6793,"phase_2":0.4279,"phase_3":0.5882,"nda_bla":0.9258,"overall_loa":0.0127},{"indication":"neurology","preclinical":0.04,"phase_1":0.483,"phase_2":0.2538,"phase_3":0.5147,"nda_bla":0.8475,"overall_loa":0.0021},{"indication":"immunology","preclinical":0.06,"phase_1":0.5579,"phase_2":0.2984,"phase_3":0.638,"nda_bla":0.9315,"overall_loa":0.0059},{"indication":"infectious_disease","preclinical":0.07,"phase_1":0.5838,"phase_2":0.3668,"phase_3":0.6248,"nda_bla":0.9177,"overall_loa":0.0086},{"indication":"cardiovascular","preclinical":0.05,"phase_1":0.506,"phase_2":0.1981,"phase_3":0.5357,"nda_bla":0.8008,"overall_loa":0.0022},{"indication":"metabolic","preclinical":0.06,"phase_1":0.6237,"phase_2":0.4319,"phase_3":0.6207,"nda_bla":0.8565,"overall_loa":0.0086},{"indication":"respiratory","preclinical":0.05,"phase_1":0.5649,"phase_2":0.2067,"phase_3":0.6299,"nda_bla":0.9488,"overall_loa":0.0035},{"indication":"dermatology","preclinical":0.06,"phase_1":0.6415,"phase_2":0.3688,"phase_3":0.5842,"nda_bla":0.8666,"overall_loa":0.0072},{"indication":"ophthalmology","preclinical":0.06,"phase_1":0.7209,"phase_2":0.3384,"phase_3":0.4956,"nda_bla":0.8972,"overall_loa":0.0065}],"multipliers":[{"factor":"genetic_validation","value":2.6,"applied_to":["phase_2","phase_3"],"source":"Minikel et al. 2024 Nature","source_estimand":"RR","applied_as":"OR"},{"factor":"orphan_designation","value":1.5,"applied_to":["phase_2","phase_3"],"source":"Mullard 2016 Nat. Rev. Drug Disc.","source_estimand":"RR","applied_as":"OR"},{"factor":"gene_therapy_orphan","value":1.13,"applied_to":["phase_1","phase_2"],"source":"Phares, Phillip & Trusheim 2025 Nat. Rev. Drug Disc. (calibrated to 18.5%; replaces Orphan Designation for gene therapy)","source_estimand":"OR","applied_as":"OR"},{"factor":"first_in_class","value":0.85,"applied_to":["phase_2","phase_3"],"source":"PhaseFolio assumption (no published figure)","source_estimand":"RR","applied_as":"OR"}],"query_url":"/api/v1/benchmarks/pos/lookup","methodology_url":"/methodology/pos-calibration","public_page_url":"/benchmarks/pos","notes":["Baseline rows are small molecule × no biomarker. Modality- and biomarker-specific values are available via the POST /benchmarks/pos/lookup endpoint (in-product, via MCP, or via authenticated API call).","Expanded modality labels from triage/imported assets normalize to one of the 8 benchmark baselines before lookup; see /methodology/pos-calibration for the current proxy mapping.","Biomarker strategy is built into each matrix cell (BIO 2021 Figure 11), not applied as a multiplier. Model 3.0.0 has no CAR-T multiplier.","Multipliers are applied via log-odds (logit) transformation. See the methodology page for the full derivation.","Preclinical PoS is never adjusted by any multiplier; NDA/BLA approval rates reflect filing quality, not drug-specific clinical attributes."]}}